Climate Model Berlin – Development of the Number of Climatological Threshold Days in the Future 2015
According to predictions, Berlin will experience the same climate as the city of Toulouse in southern France by the year 2100. Predictions also include extreme weather conditions, such as prolonged hot and dry periods and heavy rainfall.
So, how do we know this? The Berlin Senate has kept a close eye on the development of our climate for years. Future scenarios have been drawn up based on measurements and models as commissioned by the Senate. These are based on long-term measurements of climate parameters. They yield ‘threshold days’, i.e. days when certain climate parameters fall below or exceed specific limits. This way, summer days, hot days, tropical nights or even frost days can be easily identified.
From 1981 to 2010, a 30-year measurement series was carried out, which still serves as a benchmark for current long-term means today. Similarly, there are two further periods for which predictions can be made: 2011 to 2041 and 2041 to 2070. For both periods, it is assumed that the number of summer days and hot days, but also of tropical nights will increase. In other words, the city will become increasingly hotter in the medium and long term; this puts a strain on both our health and the environment. Berlin is responding with countermeasures and plans. There are three key elements to the climate strategy: the Concept for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change (AFOK) , the Urban Development Plan (StEP) Climate (only in German) and the Planning Advice Urban Climate Map of the Environmental Atlas.
Browse our data, explanations and maps here to learn more about the climate development in our city and what the predictions are.